Monday, August 4, 2014

BUY NILKAMAL STOCK AT 310 FOR TARGET PRICE 400

BUY NILKAMAL STOCK AT 310 FOR TARGET PRICE 400



Material handling segment has the potential to report healthy growth/margin.Nilkamal is the market leader in moulded plastic products and plastic crates. The products offered by its largest division, material handling, are sold (on B2B basis) directly by its more than 350 sales personnel to engineering, automobile, pharmaceutical industries etc.

NL enjoys a market share of 60% in this segment, with the second-largest player being Supreme Industries (SIL). Fast growth in the material handling business, which incidentally is also NL’s most profitable segment, is being driven by a multitude of sectors like agriculture, hospitality, logistics, industry, waste management, automobiles, dairy and horticulture products. Because of the diversified customer base, there has not been much impact of the recent slowdown in IIP growth. The Management expects this business to continue to grow at 20% CAGR, with sustainable EBITDA margins of around 14%.

Also another attractive point for NL is that EPS growth over the next three years between FY14 to FY16 is expected to average 18-20% plus YoY but valuation multilpes look quite low between 8x on FY15 and 7x on FY16E. Also NL’s cash earnings have grown robustly in last 3 years with CPS being Rs 67 in FY14 as compared to Rs 51. in FY13 which will further increase to Rs 78. in FY15 and Rs 91 in FY16. Hence it would be prudent to value NL on cash earnings rather then net earnings alone.
To add the current market cap of NL at Rs 527. crs, the NL stock trades a market cap to sales multiple of just 0.27x on FY15E whereas the potential revenue over the next 2 years is over Rs 2200 crs.
Hence I believe that the NL stock should be purchased at the current price for a price target of around Rs 310.

It is best to consider that, i have vested interest in this stock as i have invested !!!


Friday, July 25, 2014

JULY EXPIRY SPECIAL - BUY TATA MOTORS IN FUTURE AND CASH AT 461/463 WITH TGT 485/490 SL 453


JULY EXPIRY SPECIAL - BUY TATA MOTORS IN FUTURE AND CASH AT 461/463
WITH TGT 485/490 SL 453



Thursday, July 24, 2014

BUY GHCL STOCK AT 59 TGT 75 SL 52 - VERY SHORT TERM


BUY GHCL STOCK AT 59 TGT 75 SL 52 - VERY SHORT TERM


GHCL India is one of the largest manufacturers of Soda Ash in India, with an installed production capacity of 8.50 lakh MTPA, equally divided for producing Light (used in detergent industry) and Dense (used in Glass industry) Soda Ash. GHCL's Soda Ash is also widely used in the manufacture of sodium salts widely used in food products, textiles, paper, metallurgical industries and desalination plants.

Some of GHCL’s major soda ash consumers include clients like Hindustan Unilever Limited.

Attractive point for GHCL is that EPS growth over the next three years between FY14 to FY16 is expected to average 20% plus YoY but valuation multilpes look quite low between 5x on FY15 and 4x on FY16E. More noteworthy is that GHCL is one of those stocks which has seen almost 90% erosion in prices from its peak in Dec 2007. At the current price GHCL enjoys a market cap of Rs 578 crs as compared to a balance sheet size of Rs 3014 crs as on Mar 2014 and a Net worth of Rs 587 crs.

It is best to consider that, i have vested interest in this stock as i have invested !!!

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Innoventive Industries Limited Buy @ Rs. 20 with Target Price: Rs 120)



Innoventive Industries Limited Buy @ Rs. 20 with Target Price: Rs 120)





Winners do not do anything different but they do things differently. This is a well diversified engineering product company. It manufactures precision tubes, panel strips, auto components and various other engineering products such as machined tubings, couplings and pup joints. These products are used in various industries such as general engineering, transportation, power and oil & gas. Interestingly, manufacturing of these products does not require very high end technology. In fact there are umpteen number of companies which supplies these products. 

The company, earlier known as Arihant Domestic Appliances Private Limited, was acquired by Mr. Chandu Chavan and the other first generation promoters in 2002. It commenced its business with supplying Electric Resistance Welded (ERW) tubes to the automobile industry. Today, it caters to the diverse engineering requirements of clients from various industries, mentioned above. Specialization in processing various types of steels, faster development cycles, flexible production systems and effective supply chain management has made Innoventive one of the industry leaders. Despite offering quality products, the company does not charge any premium for its products. This makes the company less vulnerable to stiff competition in the industry.


Thus, in view of its strong growth prospects, wide range of products, process innovation and management focus towards enhancing profitability, the stock is well placed to double your money over the next 4-5 years. At the current price of Rs 20 per share, the stock of the company is currently trading at just 8.4 times its trailing 12-months earnings.  recommend you to buy the stock of the company at current levels or lower. 

Disclaimer : It's better to deem as I have vested interest in this company

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

09-01-2013 stocks for intraday


09-01-2013 stocks for intraday

1     BUY BIOCON 295 TGT 304/310   SL 290

2     JAIN IRRIGAION ABV 85 TGT 90 SL 82.5


  

Monday, October 22, 2012

SUZLON ENERGY - INVESTMENT BUY CALL

A  BUY recommendation on Suzlon Energy  at this point of time may  raise the eyebrows of many of my readers.But I feels the risk reward ratio warrants a re-look on this wind power major in current situation.Suzlon was a shining star in Indian stock market till 2008.Then the company decided to take over a German Wind power company RE Power mainly to acquire the latest technology and designing capabilities owned by that company. There were many blade cracking issues at that time against Suzlon and the latest technology was inevitable to tide over these problems.As per the German laws technology transfer is not permitted if the company is not a 100 % Subsidiary. So suzlon forced to buyout the 100 % stake in RE Power which stretched the balance sheet of Suzlon with higher debt .On the other side ,company's business went through a tough time mainly because of the western recession which started in 2008.Whenever the recession starts cost of conventional energy sources like crude ,coal ..etc nose-dives and non conventional sources become less attractive. Such a situation created problems not only for Suzlon but  all non conventional energy related firms.Suzlon posted losses in 2009-2011 period and even the existence of the company became a big question mark.Series of these incidents bring down the share price of this once considered blue chip from Rs.415 to just Rs.17/- ( after adjusted FV split)  in this January. In order to tide over the difficult situation company even sold its acquired stake in Hansen transmission ..etc .
                                                                          Now Suzlon is left with a debt of around Rs.11000 - 12000 Cr including the FCCB re payment liabilities.No doubt it is a real concern .But we should not ignore the positives as well and also the crash of its share price during this period due to these negatives.After a sharp crash in energy prices during the recessionary period , now it again started to move up with a vengeance .Coal and crude prices moved sharply even only with small signs of recovery in US economy .In 2007-08, the cost of one unit of power from wind energy was Rs. 5,compared to Rs. 2 to Rs. 2.75 for coal.Today, the cost of wind power has come down to between Rs. 3.25 and Rs. 3.5, while the price of power from coal has increased to Rs. 3 to Rs. 3.10.This situation is expected to continue  in favor of wind power in coming years.This is  one of the biggest positive for the entire industry and such a situation will surely increase the order flow to Suzlon which is considered as one of the word's low cost producer of wind turbines.
Considering the policy paralysis in power sector ,no doubt India will face severe power shortage in coming years which may open up big opportunities for companies like Suzlon. The recently introduced wind turbine  S9X which is designed for low wind area is receiving very good response from the customers. After many many years , now company is reporting good order flow on a consolidated basis and it crossed 5 GW for the first time after 2008 . This increases the visibility of cash flows and it is expected to post a profit of Rs 450- 500 Cr in current year and Rs.700 Cr in next year on a consolidated basis.This cash flow along with their plans to sell some non core assets and cash reserve of about Rs.1700 cr with RE power and about Rs.1000 Cr receivables from its debtors are expected to help the company to tide over the debt trap.Company management also expressed their confidence to reduce debt equity ratio in coming years.Regarding the selling of 2 % promoter stake in November ,Mr Tulsi R Tanti MD of Suzlon categorically cleared that the selling was a one-off event and will not repeat in future.Even after the selling still promoters are holding about 52 % stake in the company.Out of this 52 % stake about 94 % is pledged .But it is a point to note that 90 % of these shares are pledged as a secondary security and chances are very rare to come this shares in to market even if there is a fall in its share prices.All together I strongly feels that the worst is over for Suzlon and company will be able to repay its debt if something worst is not happening in Western economies again .Company's share price is expected to re-rate with the full year results and  repayment of first installment which will happen in June of this year.An early improvement of European economies will surely help Suzlon a lot to capture the past glory.If the management can keep the promises of their decision to not sell the shares in open market again -  at current market price of Rs.16 / - the risk reward ratio is positive for an investment


Sunday, July 29, 2012

BUY TUBE INVESTMENT FOR TGT 180 SHORT TERM

                            TUBE INVESTMENTS OF INDIA FOR SHORT TERM TGT 167/180

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Short term: Prices are moving.

Intermediate term: Prices are trending.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 143.36.

The projected upper bound is: 167.17. IMEDIATELY & MAY BE 180 SHORTLY

The projected lower bound is: 151.88.

The projected closing price is: 159.52.  





Thursday, December 15, 2011

INTRADAY STOCK TRADING CALLS FOR 15-12-2011

INTRADAY STOCK TRADING CALLS FOR 15-12-2011


1.RELCAP = BUY ABV 277 TGT 286 SL 273

SELL BELOW 267 TGT 258 SL 272

2.LOVABLE = BUY ABV 353 TGT 365 SL 349

SELL BELOW 340 TGT 327 SL 346

1. LT = SELL BELOW 1160 TGT 1140 SL 1169

BUY ABV 1185 TGT 1200 SL 1179

4 .RIL = BUY ABV 745 TGT 755 SL 739

SELL BELOW 732 TGT 712 SL 738

5. JUBILIANT FOOD = SELL BELOW 738 TGT 712 SL 744

BUY ABV 747 TGT 760 SL 740

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

INTRADAY/WEEK STOCK TRADING CALLS - 14-12-2011


INTRADAY/WEEK STOCK TRADING CALLS - 14-12-2011

1.RELCAP = BUY ABV 288 TGT 296 SL 284
SELL BELOW 277 TGT 264 SL 282
2.LOVABLE = BUY ABV 353 TGT 365 SL 349
SELL BELOW 340 TGT 327 SL 346
3. LT = SELL BELOW 1160 TGT 1140 SL 1169
BUY ABV 1185 TGT 1200 SL 1179
4 .RIL = BUY ABV 745 TGT 755 SL 739
SELL BELOW 732 TGT 712 SL 725
5. JUBILIANT FOOD = SELL BELOW 738 TGT 712 SL 744
BUY ABV 747 TGT 760 SL 740

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

INTRADAY STOCK TRADING CALLS 13-12-2011


13-12-2011
INTRADAY STOCK TRADING CALLS 13-12-2011
1. RELCAP = BUY ABV 288 TGT 296 SL 284
SELL BELOW277 TGT 264 SL 282
2. LOVABLE = BUY ABV 360 TGT 370 SL 355
SELL BELOW 349 TGT 339 SL 354
3. LT = SELL BELOW 1188 TGT 1175 SL 1195
BUY ABV 1200 TGT 1215 SL 1194
4 .RIL = BUY ABV 732 TGT 752 SL 725
SELL BELOW 723 TGT 712 SL 728
5. JUBILIANT FOOD = SELL BELOW 738 TGT 712 SL 744
BUY ABV 757 TGT 772 SL 751

Sunday, December 11, 2011

INTRADAY/WEEK STOCK TRADING CALLS 12-12-2011

INTRADAY/WEEK CALLS = 12-12-2011
1. RELCAP = BUY ABV 295 TGT 303 SL 290
SELL BELOW288 TGT 281 SL 291
2. LOVABLE = BUY ABV 369 TGT 377 SL 365
SELL BELOW 358 TGT 345 SL 362
3 .TALWALKAR = BUY ABVE 144 TGT 152 SL 140
SELL BELOW 140 TGT 136 SL 142
4. LT = SELL BELOW 1218 TGT 1190 SL 1226
BUY ABV 1255 TGT 1285 SL 1246
5. LIC HSNG FIN = BUY TGT 260 SL 225 VERY SHORT TERM
6.RIL = BUY ABV 766 TGT 785 SL 759
SELL BELOW 750 TGT 735 SL 757
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