Markets may slip N Nifty may down 5400 in 15-30 days

Although the Nifty has shown a smart pullback in the last few days, Prakash Diwan, Networth Stock Broking says it will probably see a retracement from the current levels, "It may go back to 5,400 in sometime, not immediately, but maybe in the next 15-30 days."

Realty, telecom and metals, he says, will probably weaken the Sensex and the Nifty more than any other sectors.

However, he is positive on the IT sector. “IT will become a defensive safer play as compared to others.”

Q: We have seen the market come back to where they were last Wednesday or Tuesday back to the straddling 6,000 mark. Do you think that there is enough steam left to cross this 6,040 to target 6,300 or do you think this should be profit taking time and valuations are already looking little dear?

A: I think the market is pretty laboured, the way it is crossing the 6,000 mark. So, it’s not going to be very easy task for it to go all the way to 6,300 definitely. But possibly if there is some sort of momentum on the back of positive flows, news flows, it could go all the way to 6,070. But there is a topping out which is very eminent there as well. So, while I believe you will probably see a retracement from these levels, maybe back to 5,400 in sometime, not immediately, but maybe in the next 15-30 days.

Q: If we do go back to 5,400, whatever the probabilities are for that, which stocks in the Nifty are looking exceedingly weak perhaps at the 6,000 level which might crack?

A: It’s typically a huge list of stocks which don’t look very strong. So, they could be susceptible to any kind of shorting or some sort of serious profit taking, particularly realty would given in very easily because the comeback has been fairly specious, it’s not very tenable at these levels.

You would also see telecom go through a bit of volatility and hence unfavourable move downward. Metals maybe, but not as severe as other two. So, I believe these three would probably weaken the Sensex and the Nifty more than any other sectors.

Q: What about banks, they spearheaded the rally in September and early October? They have taken a badgering which one never expect probably some of it was unexpected news, but is there a fundamental wobbliness and you would rather take profit when the market gives you a chance?

A: Yes certainly. We believe State Bank of India for e.g. could again react downwards if some profit taking happens. There should be logically some profit booking at these levels, even Axis Bank is looking pretty weak at this juncture. These are the banks which had sharp run-up and they also are finding it weak to continue growing in terms of credit because that’s not looking very great, especially with realty and a lot of other sectors under the scanner at this point in time. So, where is it that the banks are going to finally grow from? That’s where the midcap and the small banks might score much better from here as compared to the larger ones.

Q: What about ITC? It’s been an outperformer, it’s showing strength. Today it’s dipped on account of that news that we have got. Should one use this opportunity to buy perhaps it will get resolved soon because the government is also involved now?

A: I think it’s a bit of an overreaction, more out of sentimental reason than fundamental because for that Rs 18,000 crore tobacco business a four-day closure and that too a planned closure is not bad a news.

ITC is of course facing a bit of competition from new brand launches which are eating away into its market share, especially for its flagship brands like Gold Flake and all. But I am sure they will overcome that and it’s a well integrated diversified business where other revenue streams also could start chipping in. So, I think it’s a great story. FMCG in any case is a great sector to be in these times and ITC would be one of the best picks there.

Q: Where do you hide, if you are thinking that there is macro level, some kind of weakness in the stock market, stockwise is there relative outperformance?

A: You distinctly have IT which is looking up, especially the frontline largecap players. If you look at the job data, which has just come through last couple of days from the US, there is growing optimism that things possibly are not as bad and the recovery is possibly on its way. Given that the stand of the US government towards Indian IT companies in terms of taking on some of these projects and contracts would probably soften in coming January that could mean, and of course you also have the advantage of the rupee dollar favourable situation continuing for almost entire quarter this time. So, the frontline companies are pitching in for contracts, the pitch is very strong. They have given an indication that they should be getting some decent size contracts in January. So, IT will become a defensive safer play as compared to others

Courtesy :Moneycontrol

Buy and hold good stocks (businesses) for long term. A drop in price should be seen as a friend for accumulating stocks!!

At a time when the market is witnessing a correction and thereby causing nervousness to the investors, this article may open the eyes of many and may change their lives for good forever.

The major part of the article below has been picked up from web. The same clearly mentions as to how one should pick good businesses and follow their performance instead of keeping a daily tab on the stock price. Many investors still judge the company based on the fall and rise of the stock price of the company, while the greatest investors of all time did just the opposite. They followed the price only at the time of buying and selling the scrip.

The article is long, however I would suggest all serious Capital Market participants to read the entire article. The same may change your perception about Investing and make you a better investor.

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One of the most underrated investors around is Charlie Munger. OK, maybe he's not really underrated, but his partner at Berkshire Hathaway -- you know, the famous one, Warren Buffett -- casts a pretty long shadow. So Charlie's own brilliance is often overlooked.

Back to Charlie. He's written that to be truly successful at investing, you need to use many different mental models, from many different areas. He says he has about 80. (No wonder he's so good!)

One of the models Munger follows is that of looking for overall results while ignoring the noise, something helped by expanding the scale. Assuming the data is there, a longer scale means seeing the overall direction of movement without being distracted by the short-term, up-and-down bounce of the data's noise.

It's all about time scale

For instance, this graph.


For this stock price graph, you see that it went nowhere for a few months (that's the time scale) and then declined steadily toward the end. Time to bail, right? Especially after that 50% decline.


Then there's this graph.



you saw this pattern over several months, would you hold? It went down, it seemed to recover, and then it started falling again. Plus, it was bouncing all over the place while doing that. Maybe not.


However, if you expand the scale and take the long view, something Munger does, this is what you get.



The stock, McDonald's in this case, actually went up 140% from July 1, 2001, through July 1, 2008, the time shown (and, after having survived the 2008 crash, is up some 200%). Those two shorter time periods were just part of the noise among the broader, rising signal. About the only part that should have worried investors in McDonald's during that seven-year span was the 50% decline in late 2002. That was when analysts worried that the company's growth was over, which management promptly showed to be groundless.

Take too short a time frame, and what appears to be a signal is actually just noise. As the graph above shows, the signal is the upward movement, the noise is the daily and weekly -- even monthly -- fluctuation.


Beta, beta, who's got the beta?

The amount of fluctuation a stock has, relative to some index -- usually the Sensex and Nifty -- is called beta. And it's a number a lot of people pay very close attention to, because it is supposed to represent risk. After all, if the Sensex drops by 5% in a month and your stock drops by 10% (which is mostly the case with many Penny and Small cap stocks), which you might expect with a beta of 2.0, you're out more money that you would have been had you invested in the index. Except, many companies with high betas can actually be very good investments.


If you like the prospects of any Penny stock or small cap company after having done your research and decide to buy, expect the price to jump around. The betas show they have in the past, and they're likely to do so in the future. But don't worry about it. No less an investor than Peter Lynch commented that most companies' stock fluctuates by 50% in an average year. For the long-term investor, that shouldn't be a concern. What's more important than beta is the soundness of the business. Look for strong balance sheets, growing revenue and net income, and plenty of free cash flow. Beta is nothing more than noise.

In other words, don't pay too much attention to the close-in view, because it doesn't represent the true picture. Fortunes are made by backing up and investing over longer time frames.


----------------


, even monthly fluctuations of the stock price. We search for the next Pantaloons, Educomp, Praj Industries, Biocon of the world, looking to hold them for at least three years.

Multibagger stories do not happen overnight. Companies like Pantaloons, Praj, etc did not grow and became multibaggers in a year or so. These stories have developed and grown over a period of 5-7 years.

People who have made money in the market have all been patient investors (The likes of Charlie Munger, Warrent Buffett, Peter Lynch, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Parag Parikh) and have followed the performance of the companies more than their stock price. Mr. Market is not always correct while determining the stock price of a company. Sometimes it can quote a high price while at times a lower price than the intrinsic value. You need to understand the same and take advantage.

So instead of grimacing about the stocks not moving, one should take an advantage and accumulate. Sooner or later the stocks will move up supported by the conducive market sentiments.

Best wishes

SUCCESS MANTRA IN STOCK MARKET

SUCCESS MANTRA TO SUCCEED IN STOCK MARKET:

Now markets becoming volatile and unpredictable small investors are again rethinking their decision to enter the market. From 2009 till now small investors stayed away from market while the market moved from 8000 to 20000. The data shows HNI, PRIVATE EQUITY & HNI’S is creating huge portfolio in Indian stock markets.

Now lets’ analyze the reasons of recent melt down. Friday sell off was triggered by the rumor of PM resignation over 2G scam. China not hiked the interest rate preferred the reserve ratio hike. Irish debt crises will find solution shortly.

Do you want to miss the rally again?

My dear friends market is supreme, nobody on this living earth can predict its’ move. Lets’ respect it and go along with it; it will never let you down.

The following are some of my investing principles learned over 26 years of my investing life.

· There is always a profitable investing opportunity in all market conditions.

· If you have control over your greed and fear you will never lose money in the stock market.

· Failure is the first step of journey toward Success; make your failure as your inner strength rather than your weakness.

· Blaming others and finding excuses are two most destructive road blocks to success.

· Trade within your limit; decide stop-loss as per your risk appetite.

· Never put all your eggs in one basket, as there is no short cut in stock market to be rich overnight remember large castles are build brick by brick.

· Let your profitable trade flourish to maximum, but close your wrong trade at your earliest.

· Never try to repair a wrong trade, it is not a shoe. Rather concentrate your time, money and energy on another opportunity.

· If all goes wrong in spite of your best effort take the advice of an expert or take a trading break.

· And the most important thing always remains a learner like me learning from the mistakes of self and fellow investors.

REMEMBER ONE THING

THE MOST OPPERTUNE TIME TO INVEST IS

WHEN THERE

GLOOM, GLOOM & GLOOM

EVERYWHERE

Happy Weekend.



courtesy: AK.Sharma

traders veiw - nifty and markets in near future

Many traders, atleast 65% said MKT will Go DOwn till 4500 or so & so...
FRDs, u remembered when NIFTY was 5250 to 5180 in January 2010. Everybody tired, and saying NOW NO CHANCE to GO BLOW 5000SO BUY AS MUCH U CAN....And WHOLE India (somewhere Including us, but we Exited in Cost to Cost) seated in BOUGHTand what Happened??? totaly reverse...that is 4670...then Budget Cames, and some people saying that nothing Specical in Budget...may be some Short Covering will come...and yes NIFTY FIRE from 4670 to 5168.70

NOW WHAT??????as I said 65% saying DOWN DOWN DOWN till 4500...bcaz RBI so & so bla bla bla or bla....

This time Mostly People seated in SHORT from 4950 to 5150BUT as I FEEEEEEEL as ,NIFTY will HITTTTTTT NEW HIGH very SOONNNNN that is more then 5310+++where every shorters have to Cut their SHORT position...and that time Some Fool, Fresher, some Aggrassive will seat in BULLS...and then I feel NIFTY to CRASH till 4800/4500.

BUT FIRST NEW HIGH VERY SOON!!!!! then & then 4800/4500...

NOTE: The above post is very special and made out of traders mind without applying any Technical analysis like charts, OI etc.. coz, wht v feel is wht v get(traders)

Write Yours too..... Dimaag se...

60 crores in 5 years with 20000 investment

If anybody had started trading in Nifty with an investment of 20000 in 1/4/2005 as per this strategy, and using all the profits to continuously trading under the same strategy , due to compound effect it would have become 60 crores by now. This is nothing new. one of the oldest strategies (is it a strategy first???)

In EOD chart 1. Buy above 34 EMA. Sell when price cuts 8EMA from above. Again buy when price crosses above 8EMA (provided it is above 34ema) and sell when again it comes down 8EMA 2. Short sell below 34 EMA. Buy back when price goes above 8EMA. again short sell when price goes below 8ema (provided it is still below 34 ema) open icharts (EOD) for nifty . set 5 years period. select 8ema and 34 ema. and see the charts. you will find it. i have conservatively considered 20% margin for nifty , and 10points per lot per trade as expenses towards brokerage etc. it is a plan which will work both the times. bull or bear. attached an xcel file for calculation too we may say that it wont be possible for nifty to move again like this past 5 years. if we see the chart for last 2 years it is visible that nifty will keep on moving either side. it is upto the traders to make use of it

CLICK ON THIS TO GET FULL DETAILS

EXIT LONGS , IF NOT! HEDGE WITH PUTS

MARKET HVE BEEN HOWERING AROUND 5300 WHICH IS ACTING AS A STRONG RESISTANCE. THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF TAKING A DIP BEFORE GEARING UP TO 5500. SO, LIGHTEN UR POSITIONS AND BOOK PROFITS IF U HOLD ANY LONGS.
DONT STAY LONG IN NIFTY..SHORT NIFTY FUTURE WITH SL 5320AND TGT OF 5160 POSITIONAL OR HEDGE WTH BUYING PUTS..

MARKETS AND NIFTY NEXT WEEK

Nifty short term trend is DOWN only if Nifty trades BLW 5180 levels. For Daily Purpose, Trend deciding level is 5188 If Nifty shows strength above 5188 levels then a rally up to 5210-5234 may be seen.

If Nifty does not show strength above 5188 then selling pressure till 5143-5169 may be seen. Breakdown below 5150 levels may lead severE selling to 50100.

WATCH THESSE LEVLES YOU HAVE SEEN YESTERDAY BANKNIFTY TOOK RES AT 9080 AND SUP AT 8998NOW FOR NEXT SESSEION BANK NIFTY RES AT 9060 BANK NIFTY SUPORT AY 8940 UPSIDE IF IT GOES ABV 9030, AND SUSTAIN RALLY UPTO 9080-9120 BLW 9000 FALL UPTO 8920-87880- LEVLE CAN BE SEEN NIFTY FUTR PIVT PONT IS 5196 ABV THAT STRONG BLW WEAK

nifty and markets next week

Nifty short term trend is DOWNN as long as Nifty trades BLW 5000 levels. For Daily Purpose, Trend deciding level is 4902 If Nifty shows strength above 4902 levels then a rally up to 4959-4985 may be seen. If Nifty does not show strength above 4900 then selling pressure till 4860-4820 may be seen. Breakdown below 4850 levels may lead severE selling to 4800.

HAVE A CUP OF TEA AND WATCH THESSE LEVLES BANKNIFTY TOOK SUP AT OUR LEVELS AND HIT BACK LIKE A DOT NOW FOR NEXT SESSEION BANK NIFTY RES AT 9080 BANK NIFTY SUPORT AY 8830 UPSIDE IF IT GOES ABV 9080 AND SUSTAIN RALLY UPTO 9200-9280 BLW 9080 FALL UPTO 8800-8700 LEVEL CAN BE SEEN
NIFTY FUTR PIVOT PONT IS 4905 ABV THAT STRONG BLW WEAK

stocks to buy and nifty levels

close below 4800 anytime in near term will ensure new recent lows (below 4538).. and also wipes off any retracement... Till 4800 holds, always a chance of recovery

Buy ibreal at 185 tgt 220 sl 178
Buy Aptech at 165 tgt 190 sl 157
for short term 15-25 days

markets for next week

The market has seen a sharp recovery post afternoon getting strength from European markets that opened in the positive. The recovery has also been led by banking, metal and oil and gas stocks. Sensex is trading at 16998, up 212 points and Nifty is at 5047, up 58 points from the previous close. CNX Midcap index is up 0.91% and BSE Smallcap index is up 0.34%. The market breadth is positive with advances at 727 against declines of 533 on the NSE.
if nifty goes above 5100 than mkt will come out of all range bound situation and will lead more upward till 5280-5400

shreenivas

markets and best stocks

The Markets has runned uninterruptedly to higher levels. So, a massive correction at this stage frm the top is treated as gud sign to consolidate and move further.
The indices have closed in the lower end of the intraday range as the bears persisted in selling till the end of the session. The intraday range specified for the Nifty at 4875 / 4735 was has held as the benchmark bounced of the 4738 levels, thereby validating our wavecount.
The coming session is likely to witness a range of 4805 on advances, above which the 4885 maybe possible if the short covering gains momentum. Support maybe seen at the 4680 levels on declines. The bullish pivot for the session is likely at the 4795 levels and the bearish pivot at the 4770 levels. Traders need to watch the these parameters for signs of breakout / breakdown from the previous sessions range.
The market internals indicate a higher turnover due to the selling pressure and expiry rollovers. The number of trades were lower and the average ticket size per trade was higher, indicating a selling bias. The capitalisation of the market was lower in line with a downtick session. The f&o cues show the bears ramoing up shorts on declines.
The outlook for the markets is that of cautious optimism as the bulls need to hold the Nifty above the 4800 mark.
The RSI factor is indicating that the market is oversold and may bump-up for few sessions.

Hold all your buys with nifty sl at 4610

Best buys for this week is from current levels
1. ICICI Bank
2. Jai prakash associates
3. Gillete

NIFTY & SENSEX SLIDING DOWN ?

WHY NIFTY & SENSEX SLIDING DOWN ? WHAT TO DO ?

Dear friends,,

In the previous week, We hve seen the nifty which has rised without a drag frm weeks is facing resistance to cross 5100.

1) Correction is Healthy... but the timing should be correct to take long positions..General public are very optimistic that markets will shoot up to 5200 un interruptedly,and took large long positions in stocks and nifty. But, as usual.... HNI's and Large players has hedged their positions wth shorts (options or in futures)without selling their holdings. By this they can even be in profits when the nifty and stock goes down. But, where as v public will loose as v hold only longs..

2) Chart above, clearly shows that, on 05-10-2009 nifty closed below its support trend line at 4991, which is the first sign of correction. And, on 6th,7th,8th and 9th Nifty tried to bounce back , but could not cross the trendline, which shows weakness to stay over.

3) As the nifty is below the trend line.The only hope for nifty to hold wth sl 4900 is the Relative Strength Index factor which is 54.8 on 9-10-2009 .

4) If nifty manages to hold over 4950. Again, 5200 is not a big task to acheive.....

So, hold ur longs with strict SL.Any thing may happen either or down.

nifty,stock market in next week

Generally there is a lot of momentum in the market there is no mistaking that. The volumes have steadily picked up these last few days and the breadth continues to be good. So I do not think there is any problem with momentum but the roaring momentum will only be visible once the Nifty decisively closes above 5000 and then late chaser get back into the game so it is possible that one or two days you might spend circling in a 100 point Nifty range around that 5000 mark.

Global markets have gone sideways and we may also spend a little bit of time around here because we touched a very important psychological level 5000. Often it happens that the market would circle around these levels, so its possible that we also spend a couple of sideways sessions or one sideways session around here consolidating yesterday’s move. But around what’s happening in the Nifty there is a lot going on in the market in the primary market, we saw what was happening with Reliance yesterday and also with aviation stocks yesterday. It’s still a very exciting phase in the market that we are in but after the recent run both globally and locally its conceivable that we just level off a bit.

It’s good that Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) flows are continuing to come; one good thing is that Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) are not selling in this rally yet. In the past when we have seen that insurance companies start selling and FIIs continue to buy, eventually the market does come down. The insurance companies have been playing it better than the FIIs because when they buy and FII’s sell eventually the market does go up, so domestic institutions are not selling. The one thing that you want to be a bit more careful about is where the retail participation is going because eventually when this market hits an intermediate top it will be on the back of some kind of a blow out of the retail participation. The put-call ratio is high but that’s not strictly retail. If stock futures, go off the boil and that’s the thing to start monitoring now, because already excitement is building up there. I think there you want to start getting a bit cautious again...

NIFTY IN BULLISH TREND

NIFTY IN BULLISH TREND

Dear friends,
Nifty has formed a bullish trend of Ascending Triangle in daily charts after crossing 4750 and managing till today to hold over that..if it continue to hold over 4750 ,, 5000 is very shortly on our trading screens.. hold ur nifty buys as sl 4750 on closing basis... coz.. there will be severe volatality before it takes a jump.
regards,

markets next week

Friday’s upmove was because of some buying interest and a lot of short covering, but added that the momentum favoured the bulls. “This market has had plenty of opportunities to correct to 4,500 levels over the last week,” adding that the market never corrected significantly despite bad news and that a lot of people were sitting on the sidelines. “If there was any correction to 4,400–4,500, it will be quite aggressively bought into. I am not convinced that we are going to slip down to 4,200–4,300 levels in the short term unless you have some real bad news coming globally.”

BUY NIFTY

NIFTY IN OVERSOLD POSITON..EVRY ONE SHORTING THE MARKETS IN EXPECTATION OF MARKETS SLIDING DOWN.. THIS IS THE TIME TO TAKE SOME RISK..

BUY NIFTY FUT @ 4510 ...SL 4500 TGT 4600 IN FEW DAYS

whether to buy or sell

The upmove in the last week has chisled ,all the bears in the market.. almost,every one are short in the markets.. (even myself for a time being ,, i shorted nifty at 4330 and covered wth sl 4347). I knw very welll,, there are some fresh shorts made in the markets on friday at high 4390 levels... .. The pull back in nifty at 4100 to present level is like a rocket,, and didnt gave a chance or time to makeup the mindset frm bearish to bullish. Now, the markets are moving wth strength,, every one are bit confused wht to do...whether to buy or sell???

Hold all ur buys with sl 4305
Hold all ur shorts wth sl 4450

The coming session is likely to witness a range of 4300 on advances. Support is likely at 4170 on declines, below which the 4140 maybe possible. The bullish pivot for the session will be at the 4270 and the bearish pivot at the 4240 levels. Traders need to watch the activity beyond these thresholds respectively for intraday guidance.
The market internals indicate a higher turnover due to the distribution at higher levels. The number of trades were higher and the average ticket size per trade was higher, indicating a strong selling bias. The capitalisation of the market was marginally higher in line with a profit taking session. The f&o cues show the bears pressing fresh shorts on the Nifty, indicating some more possible supply.
The outlook for the markets today is that of caution and overseas cues may curb buying momentum...

take chance huge profits for just a penny worth loss

my previous stratergy taking nifty frm 4110 to 4325 worked successfully

http://keerthi-stockmarketcalls.blogspot.com/2009/07/best-stratergy-in-this-falling-markets.html
now

short nifty with at 4330 for tgt 4200 sl just 10 points ,,,i.e 4340

best wishes

best stratergy in this falling markets

Dear friends,,
head and shoulder (TOP) formed in nifty charts... cautious..dont go longs in any stock.... or ....indicies.... may markets fill the gap which is unfilled frm 3600... Risk takers can buy momentum stocks like infrastructure,, telecom,, some reality only after nifty sustains to hold over 4110 for two to three days...
my favourites picks are
1. unitech tgt 80 sl 59.50
2. suzlon tgt 110 sl 77
I think this is the best stratergy to follow..

best wishes

NIFTY AND MARKETS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK

NIFTY AND MARKETS OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK

Dear friends,
This is nifty chart which i hve been using for my technical analysis. I hve drwn these trend lines well before a month and watching the market movement. Here, it is very clearly evident that, the nifty is moving up and down exactly just following the traders sentiment and technical indicators... bcoz, these days,,therez no enough strength in the global cues to effect the nifty momentum.


So, i am very confident, nifty will test once again the 4600 levels where it finds very strong resistance(may this reach towards 4600 will take time like some weeks) ...if it holds there for atleast one week or more, rush towards 5000 levels will be very fast...


I advise to buy in all dips and hold stocks with sl of 4250 nifty spot ... who knows if it crosses down,, the gap which was created during post election results Euphoria at 3600 to 4100 may be filled.

Best wishess