Innoventive Industries Limited Buy @ Rs. 20 with Target Price: Rs 120)

Innoventive Industries Limited Buy @ Rs. 20 with Target Price: Rs 120)

Winners do not do anything different but they do things differently. This is a well diversified engineering product company. It manufactures precision tubes, panel strips, auto components and various other engineering products such as machined tubings, couplings and pup joints. These products are used in various industries such as general engineering, transportation, power and oil & gas. Interestingly, manufacturing of these products does not require very high end technology. In fact there are umpteen number of companies which supplies these products. 

The company, earlier known as Arihant Domestic Appliances Private Limited, was acquired by Mr. Chandu Chavan and the other first generation promoters in 2002. It commenced its business with supplying Electric Resistance Welded (ERW) tubes to the automobile industry. Today, it caters to the diverse engineering requirements of clients from various industries, mentioned above. Specialization in processing various types of steels, faster development cycles, flexible production systems and effective supply chain management has made Innoventive one of the industry leaders. Despite offering quality products, the company does not charge any premium for its products. This makes the company less vulnerable to stiff competition in the industry.

Thus, in view of its strong growth prospects, wide range of products, process innovation and management focus towards enhancing profitability, the stock is well placed to double your money over the next 4-5 years. At the current price of Rs 20 per share, the stock of the company is currently trading at just 8.4 times its trailing 12-months earnings.  recommend you to buy the stock of the company at current levels or lower. 

Disclaimer : It's better to deem as I have vested interest in this company

STOCKS TO BUY FOR NEXT DIWALI

STOCKS TO BUY FOR NEXT DIWALI

1. IDBI at 95 for tgt 150

2. ITC at 180 for tgt 250

3. GSFC at 440 for tgt 550

4. GIC Finance at 85 for tgt 150

5. MRPL at 30 for tgt 45

6. Bajaj holdings at 700 tgt 1000

7. Escorts at 70 for tgt 100

8. Coal India at 320 tgt 450

Best wishes

Agre Developers best stock pick for delivery

Agre Developers best stock pick for delivery

I occasionally go through mutual fund holdings to check something new interesting pick from Mutual Funds. Agre Developers Ltd caught my eye but I ignored it , because I thought it might be a another plain real estate stock and right now I am not bullish on real estates stocks . Then I saw Agre Developers Ltd in couple of more mutual funds portfolio. Then, my curiosity toward Agre Developers Ltd increased . I verified, how many MFs are holding Agre Developers Ltd ? I was surprise to see that around 49 MF schemes holding Agre Developers Ltd and it is having market cap of merely 57 crores . How is that possible ? I had never heard about this company . So first of all I started to see history of Agre Developers Ltd.
History :
Agre Developers Ltd is future group of company , which came in to existence 3 weeks back when Agre Developers Ltd was demerged from Pantaloon Retail (India) Ltd. Agre Developers Limited (ADL) was originally incorporated on March 10, 2008 with the name Future Mall Management Limited . So Agre Developers Ltd is having very short history. Agre Developers Limited is a Future Group company that will provide a comprehensive mall/property management and services in India including positioning, finance management and mall advisory services.Agre Developers currently operates six shopping malls: Orchid City Centre and Milan Mall in Mumbai; Cosmos and Lido Malls in Bengaluru; Ahmedabad City Centre in Ahmedabad and Cosmos Mall in Siliguri.

Reason for Value Buy (CMP Rs 51) :

First of all brand name, Future Group. Agre Developers Ltd has shown loss of 1 cr on consolidated account for six months from 1 April 2010 to 30 Sep 2010, then also I believe, it should get reasonable valuation . Current market cap is merely 57 Crores for well reputed future group is quite low. Pursuant to the Scheme, the Mall Management Undertaking and Project Management undertaking of Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited (PRIL) got demerged and vested in Agre Developers Limited (ADL) (Formerly: Future Mall Management Limited) and inconsideration ADL has allotted 1,11,70,966 equity shares to the shareholders of the PRIL in the ratio of 1 fully paid equity share of Rs.10/- each of ADL for every 20 equity shares of Rs.2/- each held in PRIL.

First of all we will do layman's maths . Pantaloon Retail (India) Limited has market cap of 7000 crores and shareholder of PRIL got a share of Agre Developers Ltd in the ratio of 20:1 . So if we do basic maths then we will divide 7000 by 20 that should be market cap of Agre Developers Ltd if we ignore other details like cash , debt and assets on the book. This comes to 350 cr and current market cap of Agre Developers Ltd is merely 57 crores.

Now have a look at balance sheet of Agre Developers Ltd.

Agre Developers Ltd has investment worth 254.79 crores at book value in Subsidiary Company Agre Properties & Services Ltd .

If we see consolidated balance sheet for the period from april 1, 2010 to September 30, 2010 Agre Developers Ltd has Net Current Asset of 114 crores and investment of 16 crores (Gupta Infrastructure (India) Private Limited 7.68 cr ) and debt of 86 crores . So we are getting company which is having current liquidation value of 44 crores against market cap of 57 crores.So in the balance 13 crores we are getting all the fixed assets , goodwill etc.

Particulars	As at September 30, 2010 (crores)
Share Capital	11.17
Reserves & Surplus	254.49
Unsecured loans	85.69
Investments	16.32
Inventories	3
Sundry Debtors	33.36
Cash and Bank balances	2.1
Loans and Advances	105.4
Current liabilities & Provisions	29.44
Net Current Assets	114.4

Catalyst to achieve intrinsic value :

Most of retail investor are not aware about this company . As & when investor will aware about Agre Developers Ltd and it belongs to future group then it will start to get premium valuation . Same time I feel most of the MF and FI will exit from this stock and retail investor will enter in it. Agre Developers currently operates six shopping malls . Agre Developers Ltd is engaged in setting up of over 24 shopping malls and consumption centers, all of which will be operational by 2011. That will boost financial performance of this stock.

Downside Risk :

Downside risk is quite limited but same time we should have to understand that it can not immune from real estate sector risk. Company had amendment to the ‘main objects clause’ of the Memorandum of Association of the Company which would enable the Company to undertake construction and development activities

BEST STOCKS FOR NEXT BULL RUN

Best stocks for next Bull run

Renuka Sugar, Balrampur strongest bets in sugar: JV Capital

Sugar is probably more for the traders. It is a sector the speculators do like and considering the markets being pretty lousy over the last couple of months, sugar stocks have held up really well. With the budgets around the corner, there might be some rumours and talk again about some decontrol on sugar prices, you might see the stocks on any given day will give you another 5% to 10% move but again a highly volatile sector.

So if you are trading it on the short term, you must have your stop losses in. I do not think the sector suites a lot of trades because of that sharp movement. Investors I have seen buying into the stocks feeling that the worst is over and if you are looking for an investment, then probably stick to Renuka Sugar or Balrampur.


Buy Bharti on every dip : Technical Trends

Bharti is a stock you want to buy on every dip. Whenever the next bull market begins, Bharti is going to be one of those outperformers. So you want to be inside the stock before that period starts. It is outperforming, it is building a base, it has built a base for the last 12 months when it was underperforming and it is a stock you want to put in your portfolio and trade only on the long side.

Best of Luck for next bull run

Contra Call - Buy Resurgere mines stock for high Profits

Contra Call - Buy Resurgere mines stock for high Profits

"A Contra Buy Call is a buy call given in the time when most of the analysts or traders think, the stock will go down more and more."

(Contra call is a high risk and high reward one which fetches unexpected profits if, it works out. so, its upto u to trade in or not)

The best pick which can be a multibagger in long term is Resurgere mines and minerals india ltd.. coz

The company has been listed in 2008 after its IPO at 10/- face value.

Without any reason the stock has been splitted to 1/- face value(where the stock split is done to increase the volumes in trades, Generally done in high valued stocks). So, it seems that, there is something cooking inside which really want all investors to sell off their stocks as the stock is now treated as penny stock.

Generally, b4 stock split, the stock value is almost doubled by operators in co-ordination with promoters where both the operators and promoters can be benefitted.. (Operators by trades n Promoter by selling his stake). But, where as Promoters didnt sold their stake in this stock during stock split.

So, it seems that, there is something cooking inside

Markets may slip N Nifty may down 5400 in 15-30 days

Although the Nifty has shown a smart pullback in the last few days, Prakash Diwan, Networth Stock Broking says it will probably see a retracement from the current levels, "It may go back to 5,400 in sometime, not immediately, but maybe in the next 15-30 days."

Realty, telecom and metals, he says, will probably weaken the Sensex and the Nifty more than any other sectors.

However, he is positive on the IT sector. “IT will become a defensive safer play as compared to others.”

Q: We have seen the market come back to where they were last Wednesday or Tuesday back to the straddling 6,000 mark. Do you think that there is enough steam left to cross this 6,040 to target 6,300 or do you think this should be profit taking time and valuations are already looking little dear?

A: I think the market is pretty laboured, the way it is crossing the 6,000 mark. So, it’s not going to be very easy task for it to go all the way to 6,300 definitely. But possibly if there is some sort of momentum on the back of positive flows, news flows, it could go all the way to 6,070. But there is a topping out which is very eminent there as well. So, while I believe you will probably see a retracement from these levels, maybe back to 5,400 in sometime, not immediately, but maybe in the next 15-30 days.

Q: If we do go back to 5,400, whatever the probabilities are for that, which stocks in the Nifty are looking exceedingly weak perhaps at the 6,000 level which might crack?

A: It’s typically a huge list of stocks which don’t look very strong. So, they could be susceptible to any kind of shorting or some sort of serious profit taking, particularly realty would given in very easily because the comeback has been fairly specious, it’s not very tenable at these levels.

You would also see telecom go through a bit of volatility and hence unfavourable move downward. Metals maybe, but not as severe as other two. So, I believe these three would probably weaken the Sensex and the Nifty more than any other sectors.

Q: What about banks, they spearheaded the rally in September and early October? They have taken a badgering which one never expect probably some of it was unexpected news, but is there a fundamental wobbliness and you would rather take profit when the market gives you a chance?

A: Yes certainly. We believe State Bank of India for e.g. could again react downwards if some profit taking happens. There should be logically some profit booking at these levels, even Axis Bank is looking pretty weak at this juncture. These are the banks which had sharp run-up and they also are finding it weak to continue growing in terms of credit because that’s not looking very great, especially with realty and a lot of other sectors under the scanner at this point in time. So, where is it that the banks are going to finally grow from? That’s where the midcap and the small banks might score much better from here as compared to the larger ones.

Q: What about ITC? It’s been an outperformer, it’s showing strength. Today it’s dipped on account of that news that we have got. Should one use this opportunity to buy perhaps it will get resolved soon because the government is also involved now?

A: I think it’s a bit of an overreaction, more out of sentimental reason than fundamental because for that Rs 18,000 crore tobacco business a four-day closure and that too a planned closure is not bad a news.

ITC is of course facing a bit of competition from new brand launches which are eating away into its market share, especially for its flagship brands like Gold Flake and all. But I am sure they will overcome that and it’s a well integrated diversified business where other revenue streams also could start chipping in. So, I think it’s a great story. FMCG in any case is a great sector to be in these times and ITC would be one of the best picks there.

Q: Where do you hide, if you are thinking that there is macro level, some kind of weakness in the stock market, stockwise is there relative outperformance?

A: You distinctly have IT which is looking up, especially the frontline largecap players. If you look at the job data, which has just come through last couple of days from the US, there is growing optimism that things possibly are not as bad and the recovery is possibly on its way. Given that the stand of the US government towards Indian IT companies in terms of taking on some of these projects and contracts would probably soften in coming January that could mean, and of course you also have the advantage of the rupee dollar favourable situation continuing for almost entire quarter this time. So, the frontline companies are pitching in for contracts, the pitch is very strong. They have given an indication that they should be getting some decent size contracts in January. So, IT will become a defensive safer play as compared to others

Courtesy :Moneycontrol

Buy and hold good stocks (businesses) for long term. A drop in price should be seen as a friend for accumulating stocks!!

At a time when the market is witnessing a correction and thereby causing nervousness to the investors, this article may open the eyes of many and may change their lives for good forever.

The major part of the article below has been picked up from web. The same clearly mentions as to how one should pick good businesses and follow their performance instead of keeping a daily tab on the stock price. Many investors still judge the company based on the fall and rise of the stock price of the company, while the greatest investors of all time did just the opposite. They followed the price only at the time of buying and selling the scrip.

The article is long, however I would suggest all serious Capital Market participants to read the entire article. The same may change your perception about Investing and make you a better investor.

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One of the most underrated investors around is Charlie Munger. OK, maybe he's not really underrated, but his partner at Berkshire Hathaway -- you know, the famous one, Warren Buffett -- casts a pretty long shadow. So Charlie's own brilliance is often overlooked.

Back to Charlie. He's written that to be truly successful at investing, you need to use many different mental models, from many different areas. He says he has about 80. (No wonder he's so good!)

One of the models Munger follows is that of looking for overall results while ignoring the noise, something helped by expanding the scale. Assuming the data is there, a longer scale means seeing the overall direction of movement without being distracted by the short-term, up-and-down bounce of the data's noise.

It's all about time scale

For instance, this graph.


For this stock price graph, you see that it went nowhere for a few months (that's the time scale) and then declined steadily toward the end. Time to bail, right? Especially after that 50% decline.


Then there's this graph.



you saw this pattern over several months, would you hold? It went down, it seemed to recover, and then it started falling again. Plus, it was bouncing all over the place while doing that. Maybe not.


However, if you expand the scale and take the long view, something Munger does, this is what you get.



The stock, McDonald's in this case, actually went up 140% from July 1, 2001, through July 1, 2008, the time shown (and, after having survived the 2008 crash, is up some 200%). Those two shorter time periods were just part of the noise among the broader, rising signal. About the only part that should have worried investors in McDonald's during that seven-year span was the 50% decline in late 2002. That was when analysts worried that the company's growth was over, which management promptly showed to be groundless.

Take too short a time frame, and what appears to be a signal is actually just noise. As the graph above shows, the signal is the upward movement, the noise is the daily and weekly -- even monthly -- fluctuation.


Beta, beta, who's got the beta?

The amount of fluctuation a stock has, relative to some index -- usually the Sensex and Nifty -- is called beta. And it's a number a lot of people pay very close attention to, because it is supposed to represent risk. After all, if the Sensex drops by 5% in a month and your stock drops by 10% (which is mostly the case with many Penny and Small cap stocks), which you might expect with a beta of 2.0, you're out more money that you would have been had you invested in the index. Except, many companies with high betas can actually be very good investments.


If you like the prospects of any Penny stock or small cap company after having done your research and decide to buy, expect the price to jump around. The betas show they have in the past, and they're likely to do so in the future. But don't worry about it. No less an investor than Peter Lynch commented that most companies' stock fluctuates by 50% in an average year. For the long-term investor, that shouldn't be a concern. What's more important than beta is the soundness of the business. Look for strong balance sheets, growing revenue and net income, and plenty of free cash flow. Beta is nothing more than noise.

In other words, don't pay too much attention to the close-in view, because it doesn't represent the true picture. Fortunes are made by backing up and investing over longer time frames.


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, even monthly fluctuations of the stock price. We search for the next Pantaloons, Educomp, Praj Industries, Biocon of the world, looking to hold them for at least three years.

Multibagger stories do not happen overnight. Companies like Pantaloons, Praj, etc did not grow and became multibaggers in a year or so. These stories have developed and grown over a period of 5-7 years.

People who have made money in the market have all been patient investors (The likes of Charlie Munger, Warrent Buffett, Peter Lynch, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, Parag Parikh) and have followed the performance of the companies more than their stock price. Mr. Market is not always correct while determining the stock price of a company. Sometimes it can quote a high price while at times a lower price than the intrinsic value. You need to understand the same and take advantage.

So instead of grimacing about the stocks not moving, one should take an advantage and accumulate. Sooner or later the stocks will move up supported by the conducive market sentiments.

Best wishes

BGIL - BEST PENNYSTOCK FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENT

Currently BGIL is trading around 14 and having a P/E of 5.80

BGIL FILMS is a filmmaker-driven company that creates handcrafted 2D and 3D visual effects for theatrical and television films.

BGIL is setting up and developing new talent to set up a full scale animation facility with nearly 100 trained animators specializing in Modeling, Texturing & lighting, character animation. BGIL also intends to use the services of experienced Hollywood Animators and line producers to head the projects to be able to undertake overseas animation projects.

BGIL Films & Technologies Ltd. is a listed company on Mumbai Stock Exchange, an Infotainment Company with its core operation being related technologies into Media & Films. BGIL has set up a state of the art Digital Films & video Post Production Studio in Andheri (W) Mumbai, known as ‘BGIL STUDIO’ the hub of Indian film industry.

Providing Post Production visual effects services to Indian Entertainment Industry, be it motion pictures, commercials, trailers, music videos and special effects, BGIL STUDIOS have unequalled artistry in techniques such as model making, matte painting, computer-generated imagery, digital animation and a variety of related processes required in the production of visual effects.

Considering the fundamentals of the company, once can invest in it for Long Term

stocks to buy in this diwali

Buy Stock, AGEE GOLD (512289) at 190.25 wthout any sl for tgt 600/1000

by next Diwali...

Fundamental Jackpot calls

Fundamental Jackpot Calls
Buy Sanraa Media Trgt 3/5/7/12 in a year.
Buy Cals Ref. Trgt 4/7/11
Buy IKF TECHNO Trgt 9/11
Buy Assam Com Ltd. Trgt 22/24/28/36/44
BUY SUJANA Tower Trgt 36/38, Long Term Trgt 60
BUY Rishi Laser @ 26/32, Trgt 150/240/320 (2-3 year)BUY Karutari Global @ 11/15 Trgt 55/85/140/185 (2-3 year)